TORONTO
Timothy F. Geithner, who took over the Treasury Department in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and oversaw the almost doubling of U.S. public debt, has done better for investors than Robert Rubin while falling short of Henry Paulson.
Since Geithner assumed office in January 2009, returns on Treasuries have exceeded bonds of other countries by 0.3 percentage point on an annualized rate, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. That
General Mills Inc. is lowering is fiscal 2012 adjusted earnings forecast, saying it experienced softer volumes in the U.S. during December and January.
Its shares fell $1.43, or 3.6 percent, to $38.35 in premarket trading on Friday.
General Mills remains one of the most popular food brands in grocery stores. But like most of its peers, it has struggled with higher costs for everything from ingredients to labor and has raised its prices to help alleviate some of the pressure.
The Minneapolis company, which makes foods such as Cheerios cereal, Nature Valley granola bars and Hamburger Helper, said it now expects full-year adjusted earnings of $2 payday lenders.53 to $2.55 per share. Its prior guidance was for earnings between $2.59 and $2.61 per share.
Analysts polled by FactSet forecast earnings of $2.60 per share for the year.
For its fiscal third quarter, General Mills expects earnings of 54 cents to 56 cents per share. In the same period last year it made 56 cents per share.
General Mills plans to report earnings on March 21.
Sales at U.S. retailers probably increased in January by the most in four months, spurred by the biggest gain in auto purchases since 2009, economists said before a report this week.
The projected 0.8 percent gain in retail receipts would follow a 0.1 percent advance in December, according to the median forecast of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures on Feb. 14. Industrial production jumped and the cost of living increased in January, other data may show.
The drop in unemployment to a three-year low is evidence of an improving job market that
Two years of minimal wage increases have left Christoph Schoenau, a metallographer for auto and aircraft component maker GKN Plc at a factory near Frankfurt, feeling left out of Germany
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said the monetary authority will cut interest rates once it
U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday as investors digested a cautious economic outlook from the chairman of the Federal Reserve one day before a key report on the job market.
The Dow Jones industrial average () fell 11 points, or 0.1%, to end at 12,705. The S&P 500 () rose 1 points, or 0.1%, to 1,324. The Nasdaq () rose 11 points, or 0.4%, to 2,860.
"It’s a quiet day," said Paul Zemsky, head of multi-asset strategies at ING Investment Management. "The market is taking a pause before payrolls."
On Friday, the government is expected to report the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, according to economists surveyed by CNNMoney.
That would mark a sharp slowdown in hiring versus December, when 200,000 jobs were created. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.6%.
Speaking before Congress Thursday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy has shown some signs of improvement recently, but described the pace of the recovery as "frustratingly slow."
The sluggish recovery leaves the economy "vulnerable to shocks," including the debt crisis in Europe, the central bank chief added.
The comments raised speculation that the Fed is willing to take additional steps to support the economy if conditions deteriorate, said Doug Roberts, chief market strategist for Channel Capital Research.
"He’s saying that if things get worse, I’m available and we’re going to ease," said Roberts. "Clearly, he’s telling the market that if you decide to bet against me you’re going to get killed."
The Fed has purchased billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds and other assets under its quantitative easing program. Some analysts say the Fed could hold a third round of asset purchases this year, depending on how the recovery progresses.
Europe: Where things stand
Meanwhile, investors remain on the lookout for an official agreement on a debt-reduction plan and second bailout for Greece. The deal is expected to come by the end of the week, though deadlines have been missed in the past.
U.S. stocks rose Wednesday, but closed off the highs of the day, on a combination of improved economic data and easing concerns about Europe’s debt crisis.
Economy: Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 28 totaled 367,000, according to the government. They were expected to total 375,000, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com.
Data released Thursday morning from outplacement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas shows planned job cuts surged 28% in January to 53,486 — marking the highest total since 116,000 job cuts were announced in September.
The Challenger report follows data Wednesday from payroll processor ADP saying that the private sector added 170,000 jobs in January, down sharply from 292,000 in December.
Companies: Retailers reported better-than-expected same-store sales in January, according to data from sales-tracker Thomson Reuters.
Abercrombie & Fitch’s () stock fell 13% after the clothing retailer reported weak same-store sales for the latest quarter and lowered its earnings guidance.
Zynga () shares rallied 17% following Facebook’s IPO filing. Zynga’s gaming apps and advertising contributed about 12% of Facebook revenue last year.
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Sony () shares fell 6% after the company reported disappointing earnings and revenue.
Unilever () shares slumped 3.5% after the maker of Lipton teas, Dove soaps and other consumer products said it had difficulty passing higher raw material costs on to consumers last year, and announced a gloomy outlook for 2012.
Qualcomm (, Fortune 500), a company that sells chips used in cell phones, boosted its forecast for its 2012 performance. Shares rose 2%.
Viacom (, Fortune 500) shares fell after the media giant reported better-than-expected earnings in its fiscal first quarter, but cited ratings weakness and softness in the U.S. television advertising market. Its film division swung to an operating loss in the quarter.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters () shares jumped 24% after the company reported its first-quarter revenue soared 102% compared to a year earlier, boosted by K-Cup sales.
World markets: European stocks closed modestly higher. Britain’s The DAX () in Germany added 0.6% and France’s CAC 40 () gained 0.3%. The FTSE 100 () in London ended little changed.
Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite () climbed 2%, the Hang Seng () in Hong Kong added 2% and Japan’s Nikkei () rose 0.8%.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.
Oil for March delivery slipped $1.25 cents to end at $96.36 a barrel.
Gold futures for April delivery added $9.80 to $1,759.30 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.85%.
Companies added 170,000 workers in January, reflecting job gains in services and at small businesses, according to a private report based on payrolls.
The increase was less than forecast and followed a revised 292,000 rise the prior month that was smaller than previously reported, the report from the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services showed today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists called for an advance of 182,000.
Portugal has come under heavy pressure in the bond market this week as investors fear the nation could be the next domino to fall in the eurozone debt crisis.
On Thursday, the yield on 10-year government bonds spiked above 15%, the highest level since the euro currency was launched in 1999, while yields on 3-year notes surged to nearly 21%.
Investors have been rattled by the increasingly coercive debt negotiations in Greece, where private sector bondholders are facing losses of up to 70% of their Greek debt holdings. The fear is that Portugal may eventually seek a similar deal to write down some of its €162 billion debt load.
Portugal’s borrowing costs shot up after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the government’s credit rating to speculative grade, or junk, on Jan 13. The ratings agency said investors could lose up to 50% of their holdings if Portugal were to default on its debts.
But investors are also worried about Portugal’s bleak economic prospects and the uncertain outlook for the eurozone in general. The Portuguese economy is expected to shrink 3% this year as austerity measures take their toll and the broader eurozone economy contracts.
"Obviously it is not just the downgrade but the starting debt position, the economic outlook and the possibility that Greece is setting a template for the future that is concerning investors," said Gary Jenkins, a fixed-income analyst at Swordfish Research.
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While the bond market has turned against Portugal, investors have been primarily worried about larger eurozone economies such as Italy and Spain, which are seen as vulnerable to a full-blown debt contagion.
Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have backed off recent highs amid a flood of liquidity from the European Central Bank, which pumped nearly €500 billion of long-term loans into the banking system and relaxed its collateral requirements.
Meanwhile, Portugal succumbed to the debt crisis long ago. The nation first tapped a €78 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in Apirl 2011.
In December, the IMF released €2.3 billion from Portugal’s bailout and praised the government for the progress it has made on fiscal reforms, saying the program was "broadly on track."
The IMF expects Portugal to return to the public markets in 2013. But fund officials cautioned that the government needs to do a better job at controlling public spending, especially at the local level and in state-owned enterprises.
IMF cuts growth forecast for all but U.S.
Despite the market pressure and economic challenges, analysts say Portugal is not in immediate danger of default.
"Regardless of the future complications, it is unlikely that the government will opt to default in the next few months," said Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm.
However, the government may need to seek additional bailout money in the second half of the year, depending on its progress on fiscal reforms and the outcome of the eurozone crisis, Barroso wrote in a note to clients.
Greece, by contrast, has struggled to implement budget cuts and structural reforms that are a condition of its bailout loans.
The nation has yet to seal a deal with private investors over a proposed 50% reduction in the value of Greek government bonds. The agreement is a key condition of a second €130 billion bailout, the terms of which are now being negotiated.
Athens is facing a €14.5 bond redemption in March that it may not be able to pay without additional bailout funds.
Ireland, which passed its latest bailout review with flying colors last week, has been the most successful bailout recipient. The nation’s borrowing costs have eased this year and Dublin announced a debt swap with private investors on Wednesday.
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