European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet pressed Greece to halt its flirtation with International Monetary Fund aid and work with European allies to tame its record budget deficit.
As protesters besieged the Greek Finance Ministry to denounce 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of tax increases and spending cuts, the Athens government said the absence of European support might force it into the hands of the IMF.
Trichet yesterday spoke out against appealing to the Washington-based lender “as a supplier of help,” keeping the pressure on Greece to cut the highest deficit in the euro’s 11- year history — and on European governments to step in if Greece can’t go it alone.
“For Trichet, using the IMF would be an admission that Europe can’t deal with its own business,” said Gilles Moec, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London and a former Bank of France official. “Trichet’s very keen on saying that Europe has its own system of safeguards. He went almost as far as saying Europe has something in the pipeline.”
The region’s biggest deficit spender collides with Europe’s largest economy when Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou meets tonight in Berlin German Chancellor Angela Merkel, co-author of a Feb. 11 European pledge of “determined and coordinated action, if needed” to aid Greece.
Domestic Pressure
Facing political pressure at home not to squander German taxpayers’ money, Merkel said two days ago that tonight’s Berlin encounter won’t be “about aid commitments.”
Starting five days of financial diplomacy that take him to Berlin, Luxembourg, Paris and Washington, Papandreou pushed for European help in getting credit at rates below the 6.11 percent investors currently demand on Greek 10-year bonds. Papandreou will meet with U.S President Barack Obama and not the IMF in his swing through Washington.
“We’re not asking for money,” Papandreou said in an interview in today’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “We don’t want to be the Lehman Brothers of the EU. I’m not demanding loans for Greece at the same favorable conditions that Germany gets, but we need more favorable terms than we’re getting now.”
Greece bought time yesterday by selling 10-year bonds with investors bidding for more than three times the 5 billion euros it sought to raise. The goal was to avoid a repeat of a five- year note sale in January, when the debt tumbled on the first day of trading. Greece faces more than 20 billion euros in debt redemptions in April and May.
Wage Cuts
“Now it’s really playing for time,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels who used to work at the European Commission.
Tax increases and pay cuts for government employees outlined on March 3 were designed to guarantee Greece would meet a January pledge to trim the deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product from 12.7 percent, more than four times the euro region’s 3 percent limit.
Concern that Europe will fail to cope with Greece’s fiscal woes has knocked the euro down 5.4 percent against the dollar this year. Trichet’s opposition to the IMF as a safety valve further undercut the currency yesterday. It fell more than 1 cent to $1.3560.
“Europe is being short-sighted,” said Ted Truman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former adviser to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. “If Europeans get it wrong then this impacts financial markets. It will likely impact European growth and that of the rest of the world.”
Greek Backlash
Yesterday brought mixed messages about Greece’s romance with the IMF. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou called the IMF a last resort if the European Union fails to “rise to the occasion.”
That shifted the focus back to Greece’s efforts to get out of the fiscal jam on its own, a job made harder by protests against austerity steps by a socialist government that came to power in October on promises of higher wages and pensions.
“Grossly unfair” was the verdict of Dimitris Bratis, president of the Greek teaching federation, on NET TV yesterday. Teachers plan to walk off the job today, along with the main public transport union.
Trichet — involved in drawing up the Feb. 11 declaration of moral support for Greece — didn’t rule out European support yesterday, while keeping vague about what the EU would do.
“I gave publicly my support for the statement,” Trichet said, reading excerpts aloud at his Frankfurt press conference. “I take that commitment as very, very important.”
German lawmakers briefed on the aid discussions have spoken of contingency plans to offer Greece about 25 billion euros, enough to cover the maturing debt. One option may be for state- owned lenders such as Germany’s KfW Group to buy Greek bonds.
“It has been a game of chicken,” said Paul de Grauwe, a professor at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. “The European authorities have not been willing to give clear signals because they are afraid that the Greeks will not go far enough in budgetary tightening. But now I think we can say the Greeks have gone quite far. The euro zone governments should take a step forward now which could create a virtuous circle.”
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Japanese businesses cut spending for an 11th quarter even as their earnings rebounded, signaling a revival in exports remains insufficient to prompt investment that would spur the recovery.
Capital spending excluding software fell 18.5 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31 from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. Sales declined and profits doubled.
Sony Corp. and Panasonic Corp. are among companies cutting costs to protect earnings even as demand from abroad picks up. A stronger yen is forcing exporters to invest overseas rather than at home, and deflation is discouraging spending by domestic service companies, said Hiroshi Miyazaki, chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co.
“We’re seeing a clear contrast between the rapid recovery in profits and the weakness in capital spending,” Tokyo-based Miyazaki said. “The recovery’s spillover to capital spending has been particularly weak this time, even in comparison to the economic recoveries of the past.”
The yen traded at 88.34 per dollar at 3:12 p.m. in Tokyo after earlier touching 88.31, the highest since Dec. 11. Japan’s currency has gained more than 5 percent this year, eroding the value of exporters’ repatriated profits. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.1 percent, extending its losses to 3.8 percent for the year.
Slower Growth
Based on today’s data, the Cabinet Office may revise fourth-quarter economic growth figures lower on March 11. Gross domestic product probably expanded at an annual 3.9 percent pace, slower than the 4.6 percent reported last month, according to the median forecast of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News after today’s figures were released.
The capital spending component likely rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, compared with a 1 percent increase in the preliminary report, economists said.
“Capital spending may have hit bottom, but the strength of the rebound is still in question,” said Naoki Tsuchiyama, market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo, who estimates a GDP downgrade to 3.7 percent. “The economic recovery is largely dependent on government stimulus and companies are still cautious about the outlook for final demand.”
Companies’ sales slid 3.1 percent last quarter after tumbling 15.7 percent the previous three months, the ministry said. Profits surged 102.2 percent, the first increase in 10 quarters and the second biggest advance since the survey began in 1955.
Weak Link
Business spending remains the weak link of a recovery that’s being driven by exports and showing signs of improvement in the labor market. About a third of factory capacity is sitting idle in the wake of the nation’s worst postwar recession, discouraging companies from buying equipment free credit score.
“Capital spending may start growing later this fiscal year, but the pace of the recovery will be very moderate,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. “Companies still have excess capacity, so they will try to utilize existing facilities rather than building new plants.”
Sony last month narrowed its forecast for a net loss, saying it is approaching its target of trimming 330 billion yen in costs by eliminating jobs and shutting factories. Capital spending for this fiscal year will probably total 220 billion yen, 34 percent less than a year earlier and lower than the 250 billion yen estimated in October, Sony said on Feb. 4.
Raising Forecasts
Panasonic last month raised its operating profit forecast, as cuts in fixed and material costs lead to a recovery in earnings from consumer electronics and appliances. Capital investment for the nine months ended Dec. 31 stood at 275.6 billion yen, 22 percent less than the same period a year earlier, according to a company statement.
Slumping prices also are squeezing profit margins. Consumer prices excluding food and energy dropped 1.2 percent in January, matching December’s record decline, the government said last week.
Finance Minister Naoto Kan renewed calls on the Bank of Japan to help arrest deflation this week, saying he hopes prices will rise this year.
The government has been encouraging spending by providing incentives to buy cars and consumer electronics. Those initiatives are becoming less effective, said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japan economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Not only is capital investment slack but the demand boost from policies to stimulate replacement purchase of energy-saving electrical goods and environment-friendly autos is fading,” Yamakawa said.
Asia Rebound
Still, some companies are benefiting from rebounding demand in Asia, particularly China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy and Japan’s biggest overseas market.
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Asia’s second-largest excavator maker, may double sales in China this quarter, beating its forecast as the nation’s spending on railroads and mining fuels demand, Chief Executive Officer Michijiro Kikawa said in an interview on March 1.
Japanese manufacturers increased output in January at the fastest pace since May and exports climbed the most in almost 30 years, government reports showed last month.
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The nation’s second-largest shopping mall operator, General Growth Properties Inc., said Wednesday that it reached a deal with Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management Inc. that will speed its exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Speculation raged for weeks that General Growth might turn to Brookfield, which has been looking to expand its slate of U.S. retail properties and last year acquired an undisclosed stake in the company.
General Growth, in turn, could thwart last week’s $10 billion takeover bid from Simon Property Group Inc. The No. 1 shopping mall operator controls some 382 properties worldwide including the Regency Plaza center in St. Charles, St. Louis Mills mall in Hazelwood and Lincoln Crossing in O’Fallon, Ill.
General Growth rebuffed the unsolicited offer from Simon for being too low cash advance to savings account. A Simon spokeswoman didn’t have a comment.
General Growth owns or manages 200 shopping malls in 44 states, including St. Louis Galleria. The company racked up $27 billion in debt by the time it sought shelter from creditors last April, making it the largest real estate bankruptcy case in U.S. history.
As part of the new plan, General Growth would spin off some assets as a new company named General Growth Opportunities, which would essentially hold assets the company concedes aren’t producing much income currently, including the company’s master planned communities and some large retail hubs, such as the South Street Seaport in New York.
Hawaii lawmakers are considering renaming the soon-to-open Kapolei Court Complex after Chief Justice Ronald Moon.
Senate Concurrent Resolution No. 38 was introduced by Senate President Colleen Hanabusa and Sen. Brian Taniguchi, chairman of the Senate Judiciary and Government Operations Committee. Both are Democrats.
It proposes renaming the new $124.5 million Kapolei Court Complex the “Ronald T.Y. Moon Judicial Complex.”
Moon spearheaded development of the West Oahu court complex, which will open March 29 after more than 20 years of planning and nearly three years under construction. It will serve as the new home of family court for the 1st Judicial Circuit.
Under state law, Moon must retire as chief justice of the Hawaii Supreme Court when he turns 70 this September, capping a more than 40-year legal career in Hawaii. He was named to the state’s highest court in 1993.
The resolution is nonbinding but serves as a recommendation, in this case, to the governor, the state comptroller and the administrative director of the state’s courts.
The Senate Judiciary Committee will have a public hearing on the resolution at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday at the State Capitol.
Dubai is reportedly preparing to sell a host of assets, including one of the world’s best known cruise ships, as the emirate’s investment arm looks to restructure a mountain of debt.
The Queen Elizabeth II, or QE2, is rumored to be one of the assets that Dubai’s state-run private equity firm, Istithmar World, is planning to sell. An Istithmar spokesman did not respond to requests for comment on Tuesday.
However, a company spokesman told Arabian Business that "there are a number of options being considered for QE2. IW is considering which option will best maximise value of the vessel."
Istithmar bought the QE2, once the largest passenger ship in existence, in 2007 for an estimated $100 million. The firm had planned to turn the ship into a floating hotel attached to a man-made, palm-shaped island in the Persian Gulf.
Also in the firm’s portfolio is a 20% stake in Canadian circus group Cirque du Soleil. But a Cirque du Soleil spokeswoman said the group has had no indication from Istithmar that a sale is pending.
Any proceeds from the asset sales would probably be used to pay down the $22 billion in debts that Dubai World, the parent company of Istithmar, took on during a multiyear, global property binge.
Dubai was one of the first sovereign nations to run into serious debt problems as a result of the global economic downturn payday loan lenders. The fallout has now spread to Europe, where Greece and other countries are struggling to slash budget deficits and repay mountains of debt.
Dubai World, the investment arm of Dubai, rattled financial markets late last year when it signaled that it couldn’t make payments on its debts. The company received a $10 billion bailout in November from fellow emirate Abu Dhabi and is working with creditors to restructure its debt load.
As a result, Istithmar has already been forced to sell some assets at a loss. In December, the firm sold the W Hotel in New York for only $2 million in a foreclosure auction. It reportedly paid more than $200 million for the boutique hotel in 2006.
Last week, Istithmar sold its stake in Indian budget airline SpiceJet for $37 million. It also recently announced plans to sell port and shipping agent Inchcape Shipping Services for $700 million.
Despite the recent asset sales, Istithmar still has a large portfolio of investments and properties, including a large stake in book publishing giants Houghton Mifflin and Harcourt Education. It also has interests in U.K.-based Pension Insurance Corporation Holdings and Perella Weinberg Partners, a New York-based investment firm.
The Obama White House likes to say that the theories of John Maynard Keynes form the foundation for its fiscal policies. Most notably, it draws upon the legendary British economist’s idea of spending big to pull out of a recession.
But one economist says the administration has gotten Keynes only half right. Allan Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon is one of the most influential monetarists of the past 50 years. He has served in the Department of the Treasury under President Kennedy and on the Council of Economic Advisors during the Reagan Administration. He also authored the book, Keynes’s Monetary Theory: A Different Interpretation.
While the Obama team is laying out huge sums of money, Meltzer says it’s neglecting a key part of Keynes’ plan: You can’t run up a debt without a way to cover it.
Meltzer recently sat down with Fortune editor-at-large Shawn Tully. Below are edited excerpts from their conversation.
If Keynes were alive today, what would he think of President Obama’s fiscal policies?
He would roll over in his grave if he could see the things being done in his name. Keynes was opposed to large structural deficits. He thought that they chilled rather than stimulated the economy. It’s true that we’re stuck with large deficits now. The goal should be to reduce them, not to take on new spending that makes them worse.
Today, deficits are getting bigger and bigger with no plan to significantly lower them. Keynes understood what the current administration doesn’t understand that the proper policy in a democracy recognizes that today’s increase in debt must be paid in the future.
We paid down wartime deficits. Now we have continuous deficits. We used to have a rule people believed in, balanced budgets. And now that’s gone.
Didn’t Keynes advocate temporary deficit spending in a recession?
Keynes wanted deficits to be cyclical and temporary. He wouldn’t have been in favor of efforts to raise tax rates in a recession to eliminate deficits. He viewed that as suicidal. He was opposed to the idea that governments should balance the budget during a downturn, and advocated running short-term deficits to spur the economy.
The type of stimulus he advocated was very specific. He said it should be geared towards increasing private investment. He viewed private investment, as opposed to big government spending, as the source of durable job creation. He also said that the deficits should be self-liquidating, so that the increased economic activity caused by the stimulus inevitably generated a combination of extra tax revenues and lower unemployment payments. With higher revenues and lower outlays, the deficit would disappear.
The Obama administration’s main objective, in the name of Keynes, is boosting consumption. That sounds very different from the focus on investment that you say Keynes advocated.
Keynes didn’t favor at any time that I know spending to increase consumption. He didn’t want that, and in fact he believed that was taken care of by the marketplace.
Keynes wanted to increase employment by smoothing the amount of investment through the up and down parts of the business cycle. He knew that recessions cause a decline in investment, and that the fall in investment caused unemployment to rise. So he wanted the government to stabilize investment through a recession.
What specific policies did Keynes advocate for smoothing investment?
Keynes is very vague on the subject. He believed that the government should plan and direct investment, but not nationalize it. He talked about how well utilities were run under state regulation in Britain. Keynes wanted to apply that model to more of the economy. He thought government planning of investment was the best way to reduce risk for private companies and lower interest rates to spur investment.
Did Keynes champion tax cuts or government spending increases in a recession?
Again, he was extremely vague. On spending, he did say that deficits should be temporary and self-liquidating. He clearly did not advocate long-term spending in excess of revenues, since that causes structural deficits. Nor did he specifically recommend tax reductions for individuals or companies. Those types of cuts, however, are an obvious way to achieve his goal of boosting investment in a recession. And it’s been used with great success by his Keynesian disciples. For example, the Kennedy Administration tax cuts were championed by Keynesian economists, and proved very successful at raising investment.
And one of the leading Keynesians, Franco Modigliani, developed a theory of consumption stating that temporary tax cuts are mainly saved or used to reduce debt. Milton Friedman, the ultimate champion of free markets, independently developed an alternative model that came to the same conclusion. The temporary reductions under Carter, George W. Bush and Obama were all failures, since people spend more only when they’re confident their take home pay will rise permanently.
This is standard economic theory that the current administration ignores.
What would Keynes think of Obama’s stimulus plan?
It’s unbelievable that a man whose main theme was to smooth investment comes to be the proponent of redistributing income away from the people and companies who do the investing.
My advice on the stimulus plan was, don’t do it. Let’s look at the plan. First, a lot of the money was used to reduce the deficits of state and local governments by increasing the federal debt. It was simply money transferred from the federal government. The economic multiplier effect was zero. Second, the temporary tax cuts went to paying off credit cards and other debts, not spending that would have increased economic growth.
Aircraft makers such as EADS’s Airbus and Boeing Co. are counting on Asia to pull the industry out of a slump and spur growth for years to come, executives said Wednesday.
Fueled by a growing middle class eager to travel, the region will need about 8,000 planes costing $1.2 trillion by 2028, France’s Airbus estimates. Passenger traffic in Asia is likely to grow an annual average of 5.9 percent in the next 20 years, overtaking the United States and Europe to become the largest air transport market, said Airbus, the world’s biggest airplane maker.
"We’re very optimistic this region will play a leading role in global economic growth and particularly aviation," Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders said at the Singapore Airshow.
Global passenger traffic dropped about 2 percent last year amid a recession in most developed countries. Most Asian countries, meanwhile, continued to expand in 2009, and growing populations and vibrant economies are making the region the center of the aviation business.
Domestic air travel in China rose 21 percent last year, and Boeing estimates the Chinese market will need about 3,800 airplanes costing $400 billion over the next 20 years.
Aircraft makers are targeting local carriers such as Garuda Indonesia, which will receive 23 planes from Boeing and one from Airbus this year, part of a plan to boost its fleet by three quarters to 116 planes by 2014.
Niche players also are eyeing Asia. EADS unit Eurocopter, which says it has about half of Asia’s helicopter market, expects demand to grow at least 10 percent a year for the next decade.
If regulations that limit helicopter use in China and India are lifted, demand will explode further, said Eurocopter CEO Lutz Bertling.
"The Asian market is for sure the fastest growing," Bertling said. "It’s going to be bigger than the U.S. by 2020."
President Obama walked a financial tightrope in his State of the Union address on Wednesday.
Faced with an unexpectedly high unemployment rate, he talked at length about the need to spur job growth and help ease the financial strains on the middle class through tax credits, targeted spending and other measures.
But he made one thing very clear: He also wants to address the unsustainable growth rate in U.S. debt.
"[I]f we do not take meaningful steps to rein in our debt, it could damage our markets, increase the cost of borrowing, and jeopardize our recovery - all of which could have an even worse effect on our job growth and family incomes," the president said.
Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office reminded policymakers this week that the U.S. government’s fiscal outlook is "daunting."
Here’s why: The interest on the debt and unfunded promises to future retirees in Medicare and Social Security are on track to consume an ever-increasing share of the federal budget. And that depletes resources for many of the basic functions Americans expect their government to provide.
To begin to tackle the problem, the president said he would create a bipartisan fiscal commission by executive order.
The commission would make recommendations to Congress for how to address the looming fiscal shortfalls. Deficit hawks have said such a commission should be allowed to put all spending and tax breaks on the table for consideration.
"This can’t be one of those Washington gimmicks that lets us pretend we solved a problem," the president said. "The commission will have to provide a specific set of solutions by a certain deadline."
Nevertheless, Obama’s panel is a weaker version of a commission that was voted down by the Senate on Tuesday because Congress won’t be required by law to consider the presidential commission’s recommendations or to vote on them.
And beyond the fiscal commission, many of the president’s deficit-reduction proposals were baby budget steps.
It’s not that they’ll be easy to accomplish given how deeply partisan lawmakers have become. But the actual savings achieved from the proposals relative to the accrued debt is very small.
Spending freeze: The president proposed a three-year freeze on non-defense discretionary spending, which accounts for $447 billion, or roughly 13%, of the 2010 federal budget. The freeze would start next year, he said, when the economy is stronger.
The estimated total savings from the freeze: $250 billion over 10 years. But that’s a fraction of the $9 trillion in debt the CBO projects the country could incur over the same time period.
"I think it is a small step," CBO chief Douglas Elmendorf told lawmakers on Wednesday. He added that there is no single step that can adequately balance the budget.
Pay for new policies: Obama has also thrown his support behind the push for statutory pay-go rules. Those rules would legally require lawmakers to pay for proposed tax cuts or spending increases by raising taxes or reducing spending elsewhere in the budget.
Pay-go rules don’t actually reduce the debt load already accrued, but they put the brake on future increases in the debt load, which is helpful first step, budget experts say.
The effectiveness of pay-go rules, however, depends on their parameters. The strongest form would not allow any policy to be exempt.
But the president has backed a proposal that would only apply to "any new non-emergency tax cut or mandatory spending expansion," according to a White House statement.
The problem: That would exempt Obama proposals that are not deemed "new" — for instance, the permanent extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for most Americans — which is estimated to cost federal coffers more than $2 trillion over 10 years.
Curbing some tax cuts: The president also reiterated some pledges he has made before but that have yet to be passed by Congress. He favors, for instance, taxing the portion of profits paid to managers of hedge funds and private equity funds as ordinary income rather than as a capital gain. That would subject it to much higher tax rates than the 15% capital gains rate currently imposed. Such a provision is estimated to raise roughly $24 billion over 10 years.
What’s really needed
Any credible long-term solution to the country’s fast-growing debt puts Obama in a tight political spot.
That’s because it would have to involve a combination of tax increases (sure to rankle Republicans) and spending cuts (certain to disturb Democrats).
To use just one would be economically prohibitive.
Just how prohibitive?
Suppose Obama and Congress wanted to rely solely on individual income tax increases to get annual deficits down to 3% of GDP by 2015. If they just raised taxes on high-income households — something Obama has promised — they’d have to more than double the top two tax rates.
And that would push the top rate above 75%, according to research by the Tax Policy Center.
If they relied only on spending cuts, they would have to slash the federal budget to the bone. That means they would have to cut much of the discretionary spending pot, including defense.
Elmendorf noted that lawmakers often object in general to "wasteful" discretionary spending.
But when it comes to the specifics, individual programs have fierce defenders, he said. It is after all the pot that pays for everything from public schools, safe roads, health research, national parks, veteran benefits and the court system. To name a few.
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply last week to the lowest level in 17 months, the government said Thursday. Analysts had expected an increase.
There were 432,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Dec. 26, down 22,000 from the previous week’s revised 454,000, the Labor Department said. The figure is the lowest since July 19, 2008, when there were 413,000 claims filed.
A consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected claims to jump to 460,000.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims totaled 460,250, down 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 465,750.
"It’s encouraging to see that we’re continuing to move in the right direction toward 400,000 claims," said Tim Quinlan, economic analyst at Wells Fargo. "We’re certainly off the highs we saw earlier this year.
Jobless claims have been trending downward since the end of March, when they peaked at 674,000, the highest figure since 1982.
Continuing claims: The government said 4,981,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Dec. 19, the most recent data available. That’s 57,000 down from the preceding week’s revised 5,038,000 claims.
The 4-week moving average for ongoing claims fell by 122,250 to 5,101,250 from the previous week’s revised 5,223,250.
But the slide may signal that more filers are dropping off those rolls into extended benefits.
Continuing claims reflect people filing each week after their initial claim until the end of their standard benefits, which usually last 26 weeks business card design. The figures do not include those who have moved to state or federal extensions, or people whose benefits have expired.
Congress passed legislation last month to extend federally paid benefits up to 99 weeks, depending on the state, but the law only helps those who exhaust their federal unemployment lifelines by the year’s end.
Lawmakers in the House and the Senate recently passed measures to extend the filing deadline through the end of February. The President is expected to sign the legislation soon.
Both chambers initially introduced bills to push the deadline to apply for benefits through 2010 or beyond, but Democratic leaders in the House scaled back the effort in hopes of getting the bill through the Senate more quickly.
State-by-state: Jobless claims in 10 states declined by more than 1,000 for the week ended Dec. 19, the most recent data available. Claims in Tennessee dropped the most, by 2,972.
A total of 12 states said claims increased by more than 1,000. Claims in New York jumped the most by 1,155. A state-supplied comment attributed the increase to layoffs in the construction, service and real estate industries.
Outlook: The employment picture will continue to improve as jobless claims continue to fall, but Quinlan said they will need to drop near 350,000 for positive job growth.
He expects nonfram payrolls to return to positive territory by the second quarter of 2010, and for the unemployment rate to fall by the end of the year.
The government’s Christmas Eve pledge of unlimited financial aid to mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is aimed at making sure the housing market doesn’t take another turn for the worse and cause the economic recovery to unravel.
This insurance policy taken out by the Treasury Department will help keep mortgage rates low, and may wind up being a gift of sorts to struggling homeowners and banks. But there’s a catch: the housing crisis is now likely to cost taxpayers much more.
The Obama administration’s latest lifeline to Fannie and Freddie will cover unlimited losses through 2012, lifting an earlier cap of $400 billion. It also eases restrictions on the size of the companies’ investment portfolios. That’s a reversal of the Bush administration’s September 2008 plan to shrink the size of the companies’ holdings of mortgage-backed securities.
The action, which didn’t need the approval of Congress, could position Fannie and Freddie to get more aggressive in dealing with the housing crisis, perhaps taking troubled mortgage investments off banks’ books.
"They’ve cleared the decks to use Fannie and Freddie as a vessel for whatever they want," says Edward Pinto, a housing consultant who served as Fannie’s chief credit officer in the late 1980s.
The Treasury could also lean harder on Fannie and Freddie to help troubled homeowners avoid foreclosures — and by extension the banks and other investors who own their mortgages.
Many economists and housing experts say an existing $75 billion government program to prevent foreclosures isn’t working fast enough, threatening the emerging signs of home price stability in many cities across the nation.
Boosting the firepower of Fannie and Freddie, which finance three-quarters of all new mortgages, also should help keep rates on home loans low just as the Federal Reserve starts dialing back its separate $1.25 trillion program aimed at doing just that.
That’s good news for the banking industry, which benefited in 2009 from homeowners refinancing their mortgages, says Jason O’Donnell, senior research analyst at Boenning & Scattergood Inc. "This is an initiative that spreads far beyond just Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," he says.
But the trade-off is that the Treasury will have to cover much more than the $111 billion in losses at Fannie and Freddie it already has funded. Barclays Capital predicts the losses will range from $230 billion to $300 billion.
Both companies provide vital funding for home loans, buying mortgages from lenders, pooling them into bonds and selling them to investors with a guarantee against default.
While they traditionally backed loans to relatively safe buyers, they dramatically lowered their standards during the housing boom, and those loans are now defaulting in higher numbers.
If the administration leans on Fannie and Freddie to expand its foreclosure-prevention program, it would be pricey. If Fannie and Freddie were, hypothetically, to start forgiving a quarter of borrowers’ mortgage debt, that would cost another $125 billion to help 2.5 million to 3 million borrowers, estimates Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha.
The Treasury Department says its only motivation is to make sure investors remain confident that Fannie and Freddie can keep doing their jobs of buying the bulk of mortgages made in the U.S. and turning them into investments.
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