Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker said the group of euro-area finance ministers, which he heads, may not reach a decision next week on a successor for European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos.
“Whether we do this on Monday evening or in February, I cannot yet say,” Juncker said at a press conference in Luxembourg today. The so-called eurogroup of finance chiefs is scheduled to discuss the three candidates to succeed Papademos at a regular monthly meeting on Jan. 18 in Brussels.
The candidates to take over the central bank’s vice- president post on June 1 are ECB Governing Council members Yves Mersch and Vitor Constancio and Peter Praet, a director at the Belgian central bank who also is chairman of the Frankfurt-based ECB’s Banking Supervision Committee low interest rate personal loans.
Juncker said he lobbied French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of Mersch, who is head of Luxembourg’s central bank, at a meeting yesterday in Paris.
“I’m in touch with all the euro-zone countries. I outlined the merits of Mersch’s candidature to President Sarkozy,” Juncker said. “It’s not my intention to reveal publicly the various reactions I’ve had.”
Lending cash to individuals looking for cash advance or payday loans.
WASHINGTON–Home resales surged last month to the highest level in nearly three years, reflecting an extraordinary level of federal support that has pulled the housing market back from the worst downturn since the Great Depression.
Buyers were racing to complete their sales before the original expiration date of a tax credit for first-time buyers that was scheduled to expire Nov. 30. Last month, Congress decided to extend and expand the credit to ensure the housing market could sustain its recovery.
The Realtors estimated that about 2 million homebuyers have taken advantage of the credit so far and forecasts that another 2.4 million will use it by the middle of next year. First-time buyers made up about half of all transactions last month, driving sales up 44 percent above last year's levels, a record jump.
Sales are now up 46 percent from the bottom in January, but down 10 per cent from the peak more than four years ago.
The median sales price was $172,600, down 4.3 per cent from a year earlier, and up 0.2 per cent from October.
"Things are stabilizing," said Pete Flint, chief executive of real estate Web site Trulia.com. "There is a significant amount of buyer interest out there.''
November sales rose 7.4 per cent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million, from a downwardly revised pace of 6.09 million in October.
Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 6.25 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 1 percent to 3.5 million. That's a healthy 6.5 month supply at the current sales pace, the lowest level in three years.
Besides the existing tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers, homeowners who have lived in their current properties for at least five years can now claim a tax credit of up to $6,500 if they relocate. To qualify, buyers must sign a purchase agreement by April 30.
Postponing the deadline could mean sales will drop during the winter months and recover in the spring.
"Buyers have no sense of urgency now," said Gary DeRosa, an agent with ZipRealty Inc. in Seattle.
Payday loans no faxing fall on the less risky side simply because the money loaned to you is a percentage of your next paycheck.
Because oil prices have always been directly related to the strength of the economy, a recovery might have seen headlines like these:
• The recession ends: Get ready for $100 oil
• The economy roars: $140 oil, is there an end in sight?
• Everyone in China buys a Cadillac: World tapped out
But a growing number of experts are saying that you can forget all that. For the next couple of years, they say, oil prices will remain well below $100 a barrel as the economy remains fragile and efficiency measures kick in.
"The world will never run out of oil," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a recent research note, echoing the old logic that the Stone Age didn’t end because the world ran out of stone. "If the oil age does end, it likely will be because we become more efficient and simply use less petroleum."
It’s this "becoming more efficient" idea that the Deutsche Bank analysts use to predict even lower oil prices in 2010 than now - an average of $65 a barrel next year compared to nearly $80 currently.
To get there, they employ a metric known as energy intensity, which basically measures the amount of oil used in relation to the size of the economy. (Keep an eye on this term in the next couple of weeks - countries at the upcoming Copenhagen summit on climate change will use it to try to wiggle out of making any hard commitments on cutting greenhouse gases.)
The energy intensity of the U.S. economy has actually dropped by about 2% a year every year since the early 1980s. In the next couple of years Deutsche Bank expects it to decline by around 3% as people buy more fuel efficient cars and respond in other ways to the high prices of 2004-2008 and as government conservation measures kick in.
With economic growth expected to remain at a sluggish 2.5% or so over the next couple of years, that translates into an actual drop in U.S. oil consumption.
"US oil demand may have already peaked," the note said.
The bank’s numbers aren’t far off from what the government is saying either no fax payday loans.
U.S. oil consumption, which peaked at almost 21 million barrels a day in 2005, is now under 19 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Information Administration.
"The last time we had a decline in consumption of this magnitude was 1979-82," said Tancred Lidderdale, an oil analyst at EIA. U.S. oil demand isn’t expected to near 21 million barrels a day again until 2029.
The rest of the world
But what about Chinese demand? Speculators? Geopolitical tensions? Or any one of the myriad reasons cited for rising oil prices?
Chinese economic growth at this quick rate is not sustainable, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, an energy brokerage in Stamford, Conn. Besides, he says, the Chinese will likely reduce the energy intensity of their economy even faster than America.
And by the time hundreds of million of Chinese are buying cars, the fleet could very well be all-electric.
As for speculators, Armstrong said credit tightening is making it harder for them to make the big bets on energy that were seen before the crisis.
And geopolitical flare-ups in oil-rich nations are much less apt to affect prices now that the world has the ability to produce much more oil than it is using. Indeed, this lack of spare capacity was an underlying reason oil prices got so high in 2008. That year, spare capacity hit a low of 1 million barrels a day, a mere tanker load away from demand exceeding supply.
Now that number is almost 4 million barrels a day, and expected to grow to 4.5 million barrels a day by the middle of next year.
"There’s so much spare capacity right now," said Armstrong, noting that oil prices in the $70 range are still high enough to insure new supplies are being brought online. "It’s very difficult to see prices much higher."
Oil prices rallied Monday amid bets the dollar will continue to depreciate and lingering concerns that Tropical Storm Ida could disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude oil for December delivery jumped $2, or 2.58%, to settle at $79.43 a barrel.
The advance came as the dollar weakened broadly against rival currencies after the G-20 concluded a weekend meeting without publicly addressing the U.S. currency’s ongoing decline.
"Weakness in the dollar is what has everyone buying commodities today," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group.
The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of currencies, fell 0.8% to 75.03 from 75.77.
A weaker greenback makes commodities priced in dollars cheaper for buyers in other currencies.
Analysts expect the dollar to fall further given the outlook for exceptionally low interest rates in the United States and the nation’s ever-expanding budget deficit.
Tropical Storm Ida, which was downgraded from hurricane status, is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center no credit check payday loans.
British Petroleum (BP) said Sunday that "some precautionary curtailment of production has taken place" in anticipation of the storm. But other energy producers, including Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), are not expecting any supply disruptions.
Oil prices have risen from a low of about $34 last December as the global economy has shown signs of improvement, raising speculation that the world’s thirst for energy will rebound.
However, the market has struggled to push prices above this year’s high near $82 a barrel as U.S. inventories of crude oil and gasoline remain at record highs.
Cordier said he expects oil to trade in a range between "the high $70s and the low $80s."
"The weak dollar will keep it from falling, while high inventories keep it from going higher," he said.
Shares of Amazon.com surged to an all-time high Friday as investors bet that the online retailer would dominate e-commerce as shell-shocked consumers gradually begin spending again.
The rally came one day after Amazon reported a 69% surge in third-quarter profit, led by strong sales of the Kindle e-reader and other electronics and general merchandise.
The Seattle-based company’s stock closed up 27%, to 118.49, shattering the previous high of $106.68 from December 1999.
"[Amazon] held up better than overall e-commerce and retail during the downturn and it appears to be one of the first to be spring-boarding out of it," said Frederick Moran, an analyst who follows the company for The Benchmark Company.
Moran said Amazon drew price-wary consumers away from online competitors and traditional retailers as the recession forced many households to cut back on expenses. Now that consumer spending appears to be gradually recovering, "the rate of growth at Amazon looks truly stunning," he said.
Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) said Thursday that sales climbed 28% to $5.45 billion in the third quarter, beating analysts’ expectations for an 18% rise to $5.03 billion.
Sales of electronics and other general merchandise, which represent 43% of Amazon’s revenue mix, grew 51% in North America and 48% internationally.
Looking ahead, Amazon said it expects fourth-quarter sales to range between $8.12 billion and $9.12 billion, or to grow between 21% and 36% compared with fourth quarter 2008.
Amazon could sustain a 25% growth rate through next year, according to Moran. "Amazon has very uniquely stood out above the retail crowd," he said.
There will be no cost-of-living increase for 57 million Social Security beneficiaries next year because consumer prices have fallen, the Social Security Administration announced on Thursday.
It marks the first time that Social Security benefits have not been increased year over year since the cost-of-living adjustment was put into effect in 1975.
To help counterbalance the hit, President Obama is calling on Congress to send another $250 relief payment to seniors and other Americans to stem the economic strain.
"Even as we seek to bring about recovery, we must act on behalf of those hardest hit by this recession," Obama said in a statement Wednesday. "That is why I am announcing my support for an additional $250 in emergency recovery assistance to seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities to help them make it through these difficult times."
Last year, Social Security beneficiaries got a 5.8% cost-of-living adjustment, the largest since 1982, largely because of the spike in energy prices.
"This year, in light of the human need, we need to support President Obama’s call for us to make another $250 recovery payment for 57 million Americans," said Commissioner of Social Security Michael J. Astrue in a written statement.
Since there will be no COLA for benefits, the law also prohibits the Social Security Administration from increasing the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax. This year and next, the first $106,800 of a worker’s earnings is subject to the 12.4% Social Security tax. Workers typically pay half of that and their employers pay the other half.
It’s still not clear yet what if any changes will be made to seniors’ Medicare Part B premiums for hospital care next year. The Social Security Administration said in its announcement that if there is an increase that a "hold harmless" provision in the law would protect 93% of Social Security beneficiaries from the increase.
New emergency payment similar to COLA
Obama’s proposed $250 payment is roughly equal to a 2% increase in benefits for the average Social Security beneficiary.
Congress approved a similar payment as part of the $787 billion economic recovery act enacted in February.
As with the first $250 recovery payment, the second one would be exempt from income tax, a senior administration official said in a call with reporters on Wednesday.
If approved by Congress, the payments would be sent out in 2010, most likely in the first half. "It wouldn’t be late in 2010," the administration official said.
The measure would cost $13 billion over 10 years, according to White House estimates.
The call for increased benefits for seniors is one of several proposals to expand stimulus benefits. Lawmakers are also considering extending unemployment benefits and the homebuyer tax credit, both of which were included in the economic stimulus bill passed in February.
In addition to the $250 emergency payments, the White House has also publicly supported the extension of jobless benefits as well as the extension of subsidies to help the unemployed purchase health insurance under Cobra. The president has not said yet whether he supports the expansion of the homebuyer tax credit.
Where the money will come from
The original $250 relief payment was paid out of general revenue. That would likely be the case for the second payment as well.
Obama specified that he "is committed to ensuring that the $13 billion cost of the proposal does not reduce the solvency of Social Security or other social insurance programs."
That means the $13 billion wouldn’t be deducted — on the balance sheet anyway — from the payroll taxes collected to pay for Social Security.
But it also won’t be paid for by reducing spending or raising revenue in other parts of the budget. Typically economic stimulus is exempt from rules requiring that new measures be paid for.
So if the proposal passes, it will add to the country’s annual deficit, which in 2009 was estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to have hit a record high of $1.4 trillion.
World oil consumption will rebound next year as the global economy recovers from a deep slump, according to a report released Friday.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency said it expects global oil demand to grow 1.7% in 2010 to an average 86.1 million barrels per day. That’s an increase of 350,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate.
Crude for November delivery rose 8 cents and settled at $71.77 a barrel. Oil prices had slipped earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar recovered some ground on speculation that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy as the economy recovers.
In its monthly oil market report, the IEA said "buoyant economic activity in more oil intensive emerging countries" will help support demand next year. However, the group warned that next year’s economic outlook "is still fraught with uncertainty."
Global oil demand in 2009 is expected to average 84.6 million barrels per day, according to the IEA. That’s up 200,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast. But overall consumption in 2009 is still expected to be down 1.9% versus the year before.
Oil surged more than $2 in the previous session as the dollar fell to a 14-month low and a surprise profit from aluminum producer Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) on Wednesday boosted economic recovery hopes no fax pay day loans.
The dollar rebounded Friday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said late Thursday that the U.S. central bank could reverse its easy money policies as economic conditions improve to ward off inflation.
"My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period," Bernanke said. "At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road."
The greenback was up 0.3% against the euro to $1.4755. It gained 0.5% versus the British pound to $1.5993. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar rose 0.4% to ¥88.74.
Crude often falls when the dollar strengthens because a more robust greenback makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for overseas buyers.
Reinhard Mohn, who turned his family’s religious publishing company into Bertelsmann AG, one of the world’s largest media conglomerates, died Saturday, the firm announced Sunday.
He was 88.
Mohn and his family were worth $2.5 billion, Forbes magazine estimated in its annual rich list in March, making them the 261st wealthiest family in the world. They own 23% of Bertelsmann, with the rest controlled by a trust Mohn established.
The company owns Random House, publisher of Dan Brown’s "The Lost Symbol," as well as authors ranging from Stephen King and John Grisham to Toni Morrison and John Updike.
It also controls RTL Group, Europe’s largest broadcasting company; magazine publisher Gruner + Jahr, which publishes the German magazine Stern; and Direct Group, a media-marketing firm.
"Bertelsmann mourns the loss of one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our age," Bertelsmann chairman and CEO Hartmut Ostrowski said in the statement announcing the death.
"He embraced his responsibility to society and developed new ideas systematically, and with impressive consistency. Reinhard Mohn’s concept of leadership was based on values like liberty and humanity," Ostrowski said.
"In his over 60 years of active service, Reinhard Mohn built Bertelsmann into an international enterprise, which today employs more than 100,000 people in over 50 different countries," the firm said.
Mohn, the fifth generation of his family to head the company, took over after serving as a German officer in World War II, when he was captured and imprisoned by the Allies.
In 1950, he presided over the publisher’s creation of its own book club, which became the company’s "silver bullet," attracting 3 million members by 1960, according to an official company history.
Bertelsmann expanded into encyclopedia publishing and the music business in the 1960s, and introduced an employee profit-sharing scheme in 1970, earning its head the nickname "Red Mohn."
"Only those enterprises whose employees can identify with their company will be fit to master the challenges of the future, and such an attitude requires material justice," Mohn said at the time, according to the company history.
The company’s other businesses have included Sony BMG and AOL Europe.
Mohn retired in 2001, according to Forbes. His widow, Liz, remains on the firm’s supervisory board.
Chicago lost its bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics Friday to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The news was announced by Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, at a meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark.
"Like in every competition, there can be only one winner," said Rogge, just prior to announcing Rio as the host city.
With help from hometown heroes like the Obamas, the Windy City was aggressively lobbying to host the games. The upside to the rejection is that Chicago possibly saved money, as making the Olympics profitable would not have been an easy win.
Chicago was competing with Tokyo, Madrid, Spain and Rio de Janeiro in wooing the International Olympic Committee in Copenhagen.
The IOC also rejected Tokyo and Madrid Friday.
Chicago 2016, the organization leading the effort to host the games, had projected a cost of $3.8 billion, including a "rainy day" fund of $450 million in case of unforeseen increases if the city won the bid.
But there was good reason to be skeptical of that projection, said Robert Livingstone, producer of GamesBids.com and a leading expert in the Olympic selection process. Host cities routinely overrun their Olympic budgets, he said.
"It’s going to be more expensive than we think it’s going to be, because it typically is," Livingstone said, before the decision was made Friday. "I think every [host] city is going to lose money. It’s not an efficient event."
The bidding process alone cost Chicago about $100 million, Livingstone estimated.
An argument often made by host city advocates is that presenting the international spectacle is good for a local economy. But such "trickle-down effects," like benefits to local businesses, are "almost impossible to measure," Livingstone said.
"I think a lot of people look at the Olympics, and they try to justify it by how much money it adds to the economy," said Livingstone. "[But] if you’re in this to make money and improve your economy, you’re in it for the wrong reasons."
A Chicago 2016 spokesman, who asked not be named, had stood by the $3.8 billion projection. "Our numbers are completely feasible thanks to the infrastructure already in place, the number of venues already built and the temporary nature of the majority of those we’re planning to build," he wrote, in an e-mail prior to the IOC rejection.
There was another tick-up in home prices in July, a further indication that housing markets may be stabilizing, according to a report issued Tuesday.
Prices for the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index of 20 cities rose 1.6% from a month earlier, the third consecutive month of gains. They went up 1.4% in June.
Prices were still down 13.3% compared with July 2008, but even that performance was better than expected. A panel of industry experts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 14.2% loss.
"The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to decelerate and we now seem to be witnessing some sustained monthly increases across many of the markets" said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
Craig Thomas, a senior economist with PNC Financial Services Group, called the report very encouraging.
"The rule of thumb is that three observations is a trend," he said. "There have been three straight good reports, so, this is a trend."
The home-price gains also confirmed other positive recent housing reports such as lower inventories and more traffic being reported by home builders, according to Thomas. Trends in other economic indicators, such as job losses and retail sales have also improved lately.
A pattern is developing, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), one in which stabilizing prices could contribute to a self-sustaining recovery.
"When prices are falling, consumers ask themselves, ‘Why buy now when I can buy later for less,’" he said, adding that rising prices are a strong incentive to act more quickly.
Minneapolis’ gain: Among the 20 cities, Minneapolis recorded the biggest gain during July; with prices up 4.6%. San Francisco, up 3.3%, and Chicago, 2.7% higher, also recorded sizable gains.
The only price declines occurred in Las Vegas, where they fell 1.1%, and Seattle, down 0.1%.
Las Vegas has become the city hardest hit by foreclosures, which remain one of the big issues facing housing markets.
Yun points out that there will be another foreclosure spike over the next six to 12 months as the terms of option ARMs and interest-only mortgages reset, raising monthly payments for many borrowers and pushing some into delinquency. Foreclosed homes will continue to come back onto the market, padding supplies and dampening prices.
The other major uncertainty is over the first time homebuyers’ tax credit that currently gives back up to $8,000 to taxpayers who buy before Dec. 1 and who have not owned a home within the past three years.
Yun credits the tax credit with being a major market stimulus. NAR estimated that an extra 350,000 homes will be sold because of it. There are bills in Congress that would extend the program and even expand it to every home buyer. If none of these are enacted, the market could suffer a reversal.
There will be a clear-cut market recovery because of buyer interest tied to that stimulus, according to Yun, and if the tax credit is allowed to lapse, we could be looking at another bottom coming our way.
The Case-Shiller index compares the sale price of a home to its price the last time it was sold, then factors in changes in prices over time.
That, ideally, yields a more accurate picture of home price fluctuations than simply calculating the median or average prices of all homes sold during the month. Those averages can be skewed by changes in the mix of homes sold during any one period.
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