The European Central Bank increased risks for the euro by raising interest rates too soon for a region that’s grappling with a debt crisis, according to Standard Life Investments.
The currency may tumble at least 16 percent to below its “fair value” of between $1.20 and $1.25, said Ken Dickson, investment director for currencies at the Edinburgh-based company, which oversees about 157 billion pounds ($256 billion).
“The euro is a particularly risky currency at these levels because the increasingly restrictive policy and the financial conditions are not really appropriate,” Dickson said in an interview. A series of rate increases “is not appropriate for the conditions or economics of Europe as a whole,” he said.
Investment strategists at Standard Life, Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Scottish Widows Investment Partnership said last month the biggest risk to markets was the possibility of policy makers getting decisions wrong. While ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet said this month’s quarter-point increase in the refinancing rate wasn’t necessarily the start of a series, colleagues signaled more are to come.
Ewald Nowotny, an ECB governing council member and governor of Austria’s central bank, told Bloomberg News in Washington on April 16 that investor expectations that the rate will rise an extra 50 basis points in 2011 are “well-founded.” Belgian counterpart Luc Coene said on April 17 that monetary “conditions are too accommodative.”
Yo-Yo Rates
Dickson said at his office on April 18 it was “feasible” the ECB may raise the cost of borrowing by more than is justified by the outlook for the economy and inflation, and then be forced to cut rates again.
The ECB in Frankfurt lifted its main rate to 1.25 percent on April 7, the first increase since July 2008, as it sought to contain an inflation rate that exceeded its 2 percent target.
The central bank is trying to balance the need for tighter policy in countries including Germany, whose economy is booming, against the risk of exacerbating the debt crisis afflicting Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent in March, the fastest since October 2008.
The euro has declined 0.7 percent against its nine most- actively traded peers since April 7, trimming this year’s gains to 3 percent, Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted indexes show. The euro’s value was at 101.1241, down from a 2011 high of 102.7109, reached on April 12. The euro traded at $1.4321 yesterday, up 7 percent since Dec. 31.
Policy ‘Fear’
Strategists in Scotland said at a discussion in Bloomberg’s Edinburgh office on March 23 that the timing of rate increases in developed economies, China’s accelerating inflation, the European debt crisis and the U.S. fiscal deficit all posed bigger threats to markets than higher oil prices.
“Our fear is that tightening policy, both from interest rates and through further appreciation in the euro is not the right economic formula for Europe at this time,” Dickson said. “We expect the euro to move to an undervalued position. It’s feasible that it could take longer than this year but we think the end of this year the clear direction of travel would be for the euro to weaken.”
Dickson advises Standard Life money managers on currency investments. The company boosted assets under management by 13 percent last year, while Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, the largest fund company in Scotland, increased its funds 27 percent to 183.3 billion pounds. Scottish Widows Investment Partnership lifted assets 3.2 percent to 146 billion pounds.
Libya’s rebels will agree to a cease-fire if Moammar Gadhafi pulls his military forces out of cities and allows peaceful protests against his regime, an opposition leader said Friday.
Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, head of the opposition’s interim governing council based in Benghazi, spoke during a joint press conference with U.N. envoy Abdelilah Al-Khatib. Al-Khatib is visiting the rebels’ de facto stronghold of Benghazi in hopes of reaching a political solution to the crisis embroiling the North African nation.
Abdul-Jalil said the rebels’ condition for a cease-fire is “that the Gadhafi brigades and forces withdraw from inside and outside Libyan cities to give freedom to the Libyan people to choose and the world will see that they will choose freedom.”
The U.N. resolution that authorized international airstrikes against Libya called for Gadhafi and the rebels to end hostilities. Gadhafi announced a cease-fire immediately but has shown no sign of heeding it. His forces continue to attack rebels in the east, where the opposition in strongest, and have besieged the only major rebel-held city in the west, Misrata.
Abdul-Jalil said the regime must withdraw its forces and lift all sieges.
He stressed the ultimate goal was Gadhafi’s ouster.
“Our aim is to liberate and have sovereignty over all of Libya with its capital in Tripoli,” he said.
The U.N. said Al-Khatib, arrived Thursday in Tripoli.
Forces loyal to Libya’s leader of nearly 42 years spent much of this week pushing the rebels back about 100 miles (160 kilometers) along the coast, and the opposition was trying to regroup. The rebels had mortars Friday, weapons they previously appeared to have lacked, and on Thursday night they drove in a convoy with at least eight rocket launchers _ more artillery than usual.
The rebels also appeared to have more communication equipment such as radios and satellite phones, and were working in more organized units, in which military defectors were each leading six or seven volunteers.
The rebels’ losses this week, and others before airstrikes began March 19, underlined that their equipment, training and organization were far inferior to those of Gadhafi’s forces. The recent changes appear to be an attempt to correct, or at least ease, the imbalance.
A Libyan opposition official said rebels will be able to buy more arms thanks to an oil deal they reached with the tiny Arab nation of Qatar.
Ali Tarhouni, who handles finances for the opposition’s National Transitional Council, said Qatar has agreed to market oil currently in storage in rebel-controlled areas of southeastern Libya.
Tarhouni didn’t say when the deal was signed or when oil shipments will begin. He said one sticking point is how to truck the oil out of the country.
Tarhouni said money from oil sales will be put into an escrow account the opposition will use to pay for weapons, food, medicine, fuel and other needs.
It was unclear where the front line was Friday. Rebels were holding journalists back at the western gate of Ajdabiya, far from the fighting.
Thursday the opposition had moved into Brega, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) east of Ajdabiya, before Gadhafi’s forces pushed them out.
Gadhafi’s greatest losses this week were not military but political. Two members of his inner circle, including his foreign minister, abandoned him Wednesday and Thursday, setting off speculation about other officials who may be next. The defections could sway people who have stuck with Gadhafi despite the uprising that began Feb. 15 and the international airstrikes aimed at keeping the autocrat from attacking his own people low fee pay day loans.
Libyan state TV aired a phone interview with intelligence chief Bouzeid Dorda to knock down rumors that he also left Gadhafi.
“I am in Libya and will remain here steadfast in the same camp of the revolution despite everything,” Dorda said. “I never thought to cross the borders or violate commitment to the people, the revolution and the leader.”
Gadhafi struck a defiant stance in a statement Thursday, saying he’s not the one who should go _ it’s the Western leaders who attacking his military with airstrikes who should resign immediately. Gadhafi’s message was undercut by its delivery _ a scroll across the bottom of state TV as he remained out of sight.
The White House said the strongman’s inner circle was clearly crumbling with the loss of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa, who flew from Tunisia to England on Wednesday. Koussa is privy to all the inner workings of the regime, so his departure could open the door for some hard intelligence, though Britain refused to offer him immunity from prosecution.
Ali Abdessalam Treki, a former foreign minister and U.N. General Assembly president, announced his departure on several opposition websites the next day, saying “It is our nation’s right to live in freedom and democracy and enjoy a good life.”
Gadhafi accused the leaders of the countries attacking his forces of being “affected by power madness.”
“The solution for this problem is that they resign immediately and their peoples find alternatives to them,” the Libya state news agency quoted him as saying.
His government’s forces have regained momentum on the rapidly moving front line of the battle with opposition forces, retaking the town of Brega after pushing the rebels miles back toward the territory they hold in eastern Libya.
The rebels said they were undaunted, taking heart from the departures in Gadhafi’s inner circle.
“We believe that the regime is crumbling from within,” opposition spokesman Mustafa Gheriani said in Benghazi, the rebels’ de facto capital.
Libyan officials, who initially denied Koussa’s defection, said he had resigned because he was sick with diabetes and high blood pressure. Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said Koussa was given permission to go to Tunisia, but the regime was surprised to learn he had flown to London.
“I talked to many people and this is not a happy piece of news, but people are saying, ‘So what? If someone wants to step down that’s his decision,’” Ibrahim said.
Nations behind the campaign of international airstrikes that have hobbled Libya’s military hailed Koussa’s resignation as a sign of weakness in Gadhafi’s reign. They’re hoping for nonmilitary solution, in part because the rebels have been seriously outgunned.
The U.S. has ruled out using ground troops in Libya but it is considering providing arms to the rebels.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, however, told Congress on Thursday that the U.S. still knows little about the rebels, and that if anyone arms and trains them it should be some other country.
Asked by a lawmaker whether U.S. involvement might inevitably mean “boots on the ground” in Libya, Gates replied, “Not as long as I am in this job.”
NATO is among those saying a new U.N. resolution would be required to arm rebels, though Britain and the U.S. disagree. Several world leaders oppose arming rebels, including Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said in London that it could “create an environment which could be conducive to terrorism.”
Soldiers and riot police in Bahrain overran a protesters’ camp, imposed a 12-hour curfew and choked off movement nationwide Wednesday. Witnesses described helicopters firing on homes in a hunt for Shiites and attacking doctors treating the wounded, while the government called the demonstrators “outlaws” for demanding an end to the monarchy.
The nation that once led the Middle East in entrepreneurial openness went into lockdown, its government propped up by troops from Sunni Gulf neighbors fearful for their own rule and the spread of Shiite Iran’s influence.
The unrest that began last month increasingly looks like a sectarian showdown. The country’s Sunni leaders are desperate to hold power, and majority Shiites want more rights and an end to the monarchy.
Wednesday’s assault began in Pearl Square, the center of the uprising inspired by Arab revolts in Egypt and Tunisia. But the violence that left at least five people dead on Wednesday did not stop in the capital.
Doctors at the country’s main hospital said their facility was taken over by security forces, blocking physicians from either leaving or treating the wounded on site.
“There are many people injured, but we can’t bring them to the hospital because of the travel restrictions, and doctors can’t come to us,” said Ali Marsouk, a resident of the Shiite village of Sitra, who said helicopters fired on homes in a three-hour attack.
Rania Ali, another resident, said police were charging after Shiites as they sought shelter.
“I saw them chasing Shiites like they were hunting,” said Ali, a Sunni whose husband is Shiite.
The Salmaniya hospital complex has become a political hotspot. The mostly Shiite personnel are seen by authorities as possible protest sympathizers. The staff claim they must treat all who need care.
There have been moments of open anger. As overwhelmed teams treated the injured from Tuesday’s clashes, many broke out in calls to topple the monarchy.
“We are under siege,” said Nihad el-Shirawi, an intensive care doctor who said she had been working for 48 hours. “We cannot leave, and those on-call cannot come in.”
Officials in the hospital said they took in 107 injured from Wednesday’s violence. Nine were in critical condition, officials in the hospital said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to reporters.
The Salmaniya hospital also treated 322 people injured in clashes across the kingdom on Tuesday, the official said.
The king’s announcement of a three-month emergency rule and the crackdown on Pearl Square sent a message that authorities will strike back in the strategic island nation, which hosts the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet.
President Barack Obama called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain to express deep concern over the violence. White House spokesman Jay Carney said Obama stressed the need for “maximum restraint.”
Security forces barred journalists and others from moving freely. A 4 p.m to 4 a.m. curfew was imposed in most of the country.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the introduction of Gulf forces was “the wrong track.”
“There is no security answer to this, and the sooner they get back to the negotiating table and start trying to answer the legitimate needs of the people, the sooner there can be a resolution that will be in the best interests of everyone,” she told CBS News.
Witnesses said at least two protesters were killed when the square was stormed. Officials at Ibn Nafees Hospital said a third protester died later. The witnesses spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals.
A government statement said the only deaths during the raid were two policemen who were “repeatedly run over by three vehicles containing protesters.”
The government did not say whether the offensive included soldiers from other Gulf nations _ a Saudi-led force that has grown to nearly 1,000.
State TV showed military vehicles flying Bahrain’s red-and-white flag as security officials moved through the wreckage of the encampment, set up at the base of a monument to the country’s history as a pearl diving center.
During the attack, protesters fled into side streets and security forces blocked main roads into Manama. Mobile phones were apparently jammed during the height of the attack and Internet service remained at a crawl.
Hamid Zuher, a 32-year-old protester who slept at the square, said riot police first moved in on foot.
“They fired tear gas and then opened fire,” Zuher said. “We lifted our arms and started saying ‘Peaceful, Peaceful.’ Then we had to run away.”
The government said security forces came under attack from about 250 “saboteurs” hurling gasoline bombs and responded with tear gas. It denied live ammunition was used.
In Shiite villages, people went to mosques and held protest prayers. Others lit fires in anger. Clashes were reported in other mostly Shiite areas, where traffic was controlled by military forces in an apparent attempt to prevent gatherings or a surge of people toward the capital.
The government offers hints of a growing propaganda campaign. A statement said forces conducted an operation to “cleanse” Pearl Square and later state TV called the demonstrators “saboteurs” and “outlaws.”
A senior opposition leader, Abdul Jalil Khalil, believes the messages seek to bring sectarian civil war.
“And what do they think, that spreading this hate will break our will?” Khalil said. “Until now, we were defiant at Pearl Square. Now we are defiant in every village and town.”
Bahrain’s sectarian clash is increasingly viewed as an extension of the region’s rivalries between the Gulf Arab leaders and Iran. Washington, too, is being pulled deeply into the Bahrain’s conflict because of its naval base _ the Pentagon’s main Gulf counterweight to Iran.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday denounced the crackdown and the presence of the Saudi-led force.
“How is it possible to stop waves of humanity with military force?” Ahmadinejad said.
Before the rise of Dubai and Qatar’s capital Doha, the business center of the Gulf was in Bahrain. The tiny nation successfully marketed itself in the 1990s as a Western-friendly outpost for banking and financial services as a way to offset its relatively meager oil revenue. Its skyline _ now dwarfed by Dubai _ was once a symbol of the Gulf’s emergence on the world stage.
The unrest has already given a stinging blow: the cancellation of the Formula 1 season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix this month. The race is a major tourism draw and the highlight of Bahrain’s international calendar.
Drivers, check your mailboxes.
Toronto will be mailing out refund cheques to anyone who paid the now-scrapped personal vehicle tax in advance for 2011.
The first batch of cheques will be sent out Friday, the city says.
The much-hated tax was axed by city council Dec. 16, 2010, after Ford promised to do away with the fee during his campaign. But the end of the tax didn
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said Brazil is getting a disproportionate share of capital inflows because other countries keep their currencies undervalued.
“Investors around the world see Brazil growing at a faster pace and offering higher rates of return relative to other major economies,” Geithner said today in remarks prepared for a speech in Sao Paulo. “But these flows have been magnified by the policies of other emerging economies that are trying to sustain undervalued currencies, with tightly controlled exchange-rate regimes.”
Geithner didn’t specify the countries. In a report to Congress on Feb. 5, the Treasury Department said China had made “insufficient” progress in allowing its currency to rise and said the yuan remains “substantially undervalued.” The report on foreign-exchange markets also said South Korea needs more exchange-rate flexibility.
Net private capital flows to developing countries expanded 44 percent in 2010 to about $753 billion, according to a World Bank report last month. The nine countries that attracted the bulk of capital flows were Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey, the report said.
“Brazil and other emerging economies with flexible exchange rates and open capital markets have borne a disproportionate share of both the benefits and burdens of these capital flows,” said Geithner, who was scheduled to visit Sao Paulo and Brasilia on a one-day visit to South America’s largest country. U.S. President Barack Obama plans to visit Brazil next month.
Fastest Growth
A 38 percent rally of the Brazilian real in the past two years, combined with the fastest growth in more than two decades, has increased imports, prompting the government to take measures to temper the currency gains. The central bank has begun offering reserve currency swaps and buying dollars in the spot and forward currency markets.
The administration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, who took office Jan. 1, has “deep concerns” over the strength of the real and may take trade measures to protect domestic manufacturers from cheap imports, Trade Minister Fernando Pimentel said Feb. 4.
Emerging economies such as Brazil need, “just as we do, the support from the policy choices of other major economies,” Geithner said.
“As countries with large surpluses act to strengthen domestic demand in their economies, open their capital markets and allow their currencies to reflect fundamentals, we will see more balance in the flow of capital, less upward pressure on Brazil’s currency, and more robust growth in Brazil’s exports, especially manufacturing exports.”
Geithner, 49, said the U.S. and Brazilian economies “are in a much stronger position than we were two years ago.” The two countries’ economic interests are “fundamentally aligned,” he said.
The Dow Jones industrial average broke through 12,000 for the first time in two and half years Wednesday but edged lower in afternoon trading.
Investors were encouraged by President Barack Obama’s call to overhaul taxes on businesses and a jump in new home sales in December. The gains were held back by weak profit forecasts from Boeing Co., Xerox Corp. and other big names.
Obama said in his State of the Union address late Tuesday that he wanted to close corporate tax loopholes and use the additional revenue to lower tax rates on businesses for the first time in 25 years.
That change would be popular with business leaders from both political parties. The U.S. has some of the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world.
“If he can take steps to simplify the tax codes, be it for individuals or corporations, I think it would be a lot easier to do business,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 7, or 0.1 percent, to 11,984 in afternoon trading. It went as high as 12,020 earlier. The last time the Dow traded above or closed above 12,000 was in June 2008.
Boeing was the worst performer of the 30 stocks in the Dow average. Boeing fell 3.3 percent after saying its 2011 profit would be hurt by delays to its new 787 aircraft and higher pension expenses.
Xerox fell 8 percent. The company issued a weak earnings forecast and said its longtime chief financial officer, Lawrence A. Zimmerman, was retiring.
Eastman Kodak Co. fell 8.2 percent. The company’s income fell 95 percent on weaker revenue from its camera business and lower royalties from digital imaging.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 7, or 0.6 percent, to 1,298. The last time the S&P index closed above 1,300 was Aug. 28, 2008.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 22, or 0.8 percent, to 2,742.
The Commerce Department reported that new home purchases rose 17.5 percent in December compared with November. Despite the strong one-month jump, new home sales for all of 2010 fell to the lowest level on records going back 47 years.
Bond prices fell, sending their yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.40 percent from 3.34 percent late Tuesday.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve will release a statement from its latest policy meeting. It’s not expected to announce any changes to interest rates or the Fed’s $600 billion bond-buying program.
Canada
Webcor will start construction in August on the $55 million renovation of San Francisco’s Moscone Center.
The renovation work, which is being managed by Jones Lang LaSalle, will include cosmetic improvements to the main exhibit halls — A, B and C — and minor HVAC work in the North meeting rooms. A second phase of work is slated to begin in December with cosmetic upgrades to selected restrooms to bring them into compliance with the American Disabilities Act. The second phase will also include renovation of meeting rooms in Moscone North.
Built in 1981 and expanded in 1991 and again in 2003, the 20-acre Moscone Center convention complex consists of three main buildings – Moscone North, South and West – totaling more than two million square feet and offering 740,000 square feet of meeting and exhibition space.
Construction and cosmetic improvement work will be timed to avoid any disruption to the facility, Jones Lang LaSalle said.
The renovation is being funded through a public-private partnership between the City of San Francisco and the San Francisco Tourism Improvement District Management Corporation (SFTID), a privately-funded group formed by local hotels specifically to make improvements to the Moscone Center and to promote tourism in San Francisco.
The city is providing $35 million toward the total cost of renovations with the SFTID generating an additional $20 million through a self- assessment of San Francisco hotels.
“Moscone Center is an integral part of San Francisco’s biggest economic driver – tourism – and this forward-thinking program promoted by the City and SFTID is critical for maintaining the facility’s competitiveness in the coming years,” said Steven Kahn, Senior VP and regional operations manager with JLL’s project and development services group in Northern California payday loans.
Kahn added that in addition to the phased renovation of the facility, Jones Lang LaSalle would also be looking at ways to improve the convention center’s energy efficiency making Moscone more sustainable and paving the way for LEED certification during future phases of improvement to the facility.
More than a third of visitors to San Francisco attend a convention or meeting in the city, and Moscone Center is by far the biggest venue for such meetings, according to the San Francisco Convention & Visitors Bureau. Moscone Center has hosted major national meetings such as MacWorld, OpenWorld and Oracle’s national convention as well as major West Coast events such as the Pacific Coast Builders Conference (PCBC).
“In 2009, San Francisco welcomed 15.4 million visitors, which represents a 5.8 percent decrease from 2008. Visitor spending was $7.8 billion, a decrease of 7.8 percent from the previous year,” said Dan Kelleher, chair of the San Francisco Tourism Improvement District. “The renovation of Moscone Center will be a critical component to attracting new and repeat convention business to San Francisco by providing an enhanced delegate experience.”
Jones Lang LaSalle’s Project and Development Services group provides single or multi-site project management expertise for new construction, renovation and interior improvements of a wide variety of buildings and other structures for owners and corporate users as well as public agencies in the U.S. and globally.
Design Within Reach will soon require a lot more effort, as the chain closes its midtown store at 16th and J streets.
The company confirmed it would close the 2,700-square-foot store at 1020 16th St. — in the ground-floor of the Loftwork’s o1 Lofts development, which includes Bistro 33 Midtown and P.F. Chang’s China Bistro. Design Within Reach will close March 15, with a 30 percent-off sale until then, a company spokeswoman said paydayloans.
The San Francisco-based company, which has about 60 of the boutique stores featuring cool and trendy furniture nationwide, is the latest to close its local outlet during the recession. Two employees work at the store.
The company has a Berkeley and three San Francisco stores, the soon-to-be closest outlets to Sacramento.
The nation’s second-largest shopping mall operator, General Growth Properties Inc., said Wednesday that it reached a deal with Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management Inc. that will speed its exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Speculation raged for weeks that General Growth might turn to Brookfield, which has been looking to expand its slate of U.S. retail properties and last year acquired an undisclosed stake in the company.
General Growth, in turn, could thwart last week’s $10 billion takeover bid from Simon Property Group Inc. The No. 1 shopping mall operator controls some 382 properties worldwide including the Regency Plaza center in St. Charles, St. Louis Mills mall in Hazelwood and Lincoln Crossing in O’Fallon, Ill.
General Growth rebuffed the unsolicited offer from Simon for being too low cash advance to savings account. A Simon spokeswoman didn’t have a comment.
General Growth owns or manages 200 shopping malls in 44 states, including St. Louis Galleria. The company racked up $27 billion in debt by the time it sought shelter from creditors last April, making it the largest real estate bankruptcy case in U.S. history.
As part of the new plan, General Growth would spin off some assets as a new company named General Growth Opportunities, which would essentially hold assets the company concedes aren’t producing much income currently, including the company’s master planned communities and some large retail hubs, such as the South Street Seaport in New York.
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