Portugal has come under heavy pressure in the bond market this week as investors fear the nation could be the next domino to fall in the eurozone debt crisis.
On Thursday, the yield on 10-year government bonds spiked above 15%, the highest level since the euro currency was launched in 1999, while yields on 3-year notes surged to nearly 21%.
Investors have been rattled by the increasingly coercive debt negotiations in Greece, where private sector bondholders are facing losses of up to 70% of their Greek debt holdings. The fear is that Portugal may eventually seek a similar deal to write down some of its €162 billion debt load.
Portugal’s borrowing costs shot up after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the government’s credit rating to speculative grade, or junk, on Jan 13. The ratings agency said investors could lose up to 50% of their holdings if Portugal were to default on its debts.
But investors are also worried about Portugal’s bleak economic prospects and the uncertain outlook for the eurozone in general. The Portuguese economy is expected to shrink 3% this year as austerity measures take their toll and the broader eurozone economy contracts.
"Obviously it is not just the downgrade but the starting debt position, the economic outlook and the possibility that Greece is setting a template for the future that is concerning investors," said Gary Jenkins, a fixed-income analyst at Swordfish Research.
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While the bond market has turned against Portugal, investors have been primarily worried about larger eurozone economies such as Italy and Spain, which are seen as vulnerable to a full-blown debt contagion.
Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have backed off recent highs amid a flood of liquidity from the European Central Bank, which pumped nearly €500 billion of long-term loans into the banking system and relaxed its collateral requirements.
Meanwhile, Portugal succumbed to the debt crisis long ago. The nation first tapped a €78 billion bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in Apirl 2011.
In December, the IMF released €2.3 billion from Portugal’s bailout and praised the government for the progress it has made on fiscal reforms, saying the program was "broadly on track."
The IMF expects Portugal to return to the public markets in 2013. But fund officials cautioned that the government needs to do a better job at controlling public spending, especially at the local level and in state-owned enterprises.
IMF cuts growth forecast for all but U.S.
Despite the market pressure and economic challenges, analysts say Portugal is not in immediate danger of default.
"Regardless of the future complications, it is unlikely that the government will opt to default in the next few months," said Antonio Barroso, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm.
However, the government may need to seek additional bailout money in the second half of the year, depending on its progress on fiscal reforms and the outcome of the eurozone crisis, Barroso wrote in a note to clients.
Greece, by contrast, has struggled to implement budget cuts and structural reforms that are a condition of its bailout loans.
The nation has yet to seal a deal with private investors over a proposed 50% reduction in the value of Greek government bonds. The agreement is a key condition of a second €130 billion bailout, the terms of which are now being negotiated.
Athens is facing a €14.5 bond redemption in March that it may not be able to pay without additional bailout funds.
Ireland, which passed its latest bailout review with flying colors last week, has been the most successful bailout recipient. The nation’s borrowing costs have eased this year and Dublin announced a debt swap with private investors on Wednesday.
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President Hugo Chavez defended his close ally Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday and warned of “U.S. warmongering threats” amid tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program and a death sentence against an American man convicted of working for the CIA.
The two leaders met in Caracas on the first leg of a four-nation tour that will also take Ahmadinejad to Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador.
“We are very worried,” Chavez said of the pressures being put on Iran by the United States and its allies, which he accused of being a threat to peace.
“They present us as aggressors,” he said during an earlier break in his talks with his Iranian counterpart at the presidential palace.
“Iran hasn’t invaded anyone,” he added. “Who has dropped thousands and thousands of bombs … including atomic bombs?”
Ahmadinejad’s visit comes after the U.S. imposed tougher sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, which Washington believes Tehran is using to develop atomic weapons. Chavez and his allies back Iran in arguing the nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.
Adding to the tensions, Iranian state radio reported on Monday that a court in Iran has convicted dual U.S.-Iranian citizen Amir Mirzaei Hekmati of working for the CIA and sentenced him to death.
Both leaders joked that their relationship shouldn’t cause any concern.
Ahmadinejad said if they were together building anything like a bomb, “the fuel of that bomb is love.”
Chavez played on the same theme in his remarks: “We’s going to work a lot for some bombs, for some missiles, to keep the war going. Our war is against poverty, hunger and underdevelopment.”
The Venezuelan leader said in his nationally broadcast speech that Iranians assistance has helped the South American country build 14,000 homes as well as factories that produce food, tractors and vehicles.
“We will always be together,” Ahmadinejad said through an interpreter. Smiling as he put his hand on Chavez’s arm, the Iranian leader called the Venezuelan president “the champion of fighting against imperialism.”
Later during the leaders’ meeting, two memorandums were signed on promoting cooperation between the two nations in industrial matters and in worker training, officials said.
Iran finds itself under increasing pressure in the standoff over its nuclear program, and in response to the latest U.S. sanctions has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, an important transit route for oil tanker shipments.
Diplomats on Monday confirmed a report that Iran has begun uranium enrichment at an underground bunker, a development that increases fears among U.S. and European officials about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Two diplomats spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because their information was confidential and based on an inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Chavez’s long-running confrontation with Washington also looks set to grow more antagonistic after the U.S Payday advance. State Department announced, just hours before Ahmadinejad’s arrival, that it was expelling Venezuela’s consul general in Miami, Livia Acosta Noguera, due to allegations that she discussed a possible cyber-attack against the U.S. government.
The expulsion followed an FBI investigation into accusations contained in a documentary aired by the Spanish-language broadcaster Univision last month. According to the documentary, Acosta discussed the possible cyber-attack while she was previously assigned as a diplomat in Mexico. The documentary was based on recordings of conversations with her and other officials, and also alleged that Cuban and Iranian diplomatic missions were involved.
Venezuela’s government had not responded Monday.
Beyond voicing strong criticism of the U.S., Ahmadinejad is also likely to look for ways to use his Latin American alliances to diminish the impact of sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, said Diego Moya-Ocampos, an analyst with consulting firm IHS Global Insight in London.
However, Moya-Ocampos predicted that “Venezuela is going to be very careful not to push its relationship with Iran beyond the U.S. tolerance limits,” so as not to risk being hit with more U.S. sanctions. Last year, the U.S. imposed sanctions on state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA for delivering at least two cargoes of oil products to Iran.
The U.S. government has also repeatedly accused Iran of sponsoring terrorism, and growing Iranian diplomatic ties with some Latin American countries have generated worries in Washington.
In Quito, Ecuador, Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino told reporters that Ecuador’s government “has no reason to stop having relations with Iran” and said his country recognizes Iran’s “right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.”
Argentina, which has good relations with Venezuela, also has warrants out for the arrests of Iran’s defense minister and other officials suspected of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people.
The Simon Wiesenthal Center, a Jewish human rights organization based in Los Angeles, urged Ahmadinejad’s hosts to tell Iran that they support Argentina’s demands for the extradition of those implicated in the attack. The organization also condemned Ahmadinejad for threatening Israel, saying in a statement on Monday that “honoring that trafficker of hatred with impunity involves his hosts as accomplices.”
Chavez accuses the U.S. and its allies of wrongly demonizing Iran. On Sunday, he rebuffed calls by U.S. officials for countries to insist that Iran stop defying international efforts to assess its nuclear program.
“What the empire does is make you laugh, in its desperation to do something they won’t be able to do: dominate this world,” Chavez said on television before Ahmadinejad arrived.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond said U.S. policy makers should focus on fighting long- term unemployment because workers who lose skills present a bigger challenge than the country
Billionaire investor George Soros said a fracturing of the euro area would have
A slew of bad news on European banks has fueled fears about their ability to survive the debt crisis and raised the prospect of a new global credit crunch.
Five large lenders saw their credit ratings downgraded this week, and a sixth, Commerzbank, saw its stock plunge on speculation it might need more government support. As uncertainty grows that a fellow lender might collapse, banks are cutting back on lending to each other for fear of not getting their money back.
When that credit between banks dries up, loans soon stop flowing to businesses and households, stunting economic growth. On Thursday, the rates banks charge to lend dollar to one another remained at their highest level since September.
The heart of Europe’s problem is bad government debt _ a phrase that until recently was nearly an oxymoron. Government bonds of wealthy countries were long considered the safest of safe assets.
But as the debt loads of European countries soared, investors began to wonder if their governments could pay back the loans, so they began charging more to extend those loans. That only fed a vicious circle: The more governments had to pay to borrow money, the more trouble they had paying it back. Eventually, Greece had to admit it wouldn’t repay all of its loans _ and that shattered confidence in other eurozone countries. Would Italy renege? Would Spain? France?
European leaders have been struggling to reassure investors that they will pay back their debts and to work out a way to make sure they never again grow so large. But in the meantime, the bonds are all still out there, their value has plunged, and much of them sit in Europe’s banks.
In addition, banks are struggling to raise more cash for their rainy-day funds, their stocks are plunging and they’re facing higher borrowing rates.
“European banks remain the nexus of most European problems,” analyst Huw Van Steenis wrote in a Morgan Stanley research note.
It’s the banks that “transmit” the debt crisis to businesses and consumers, he argues. Because what were traditionally their safest assets _ government bonds _ are now among some of their most suspect, banks are struggling to secure the loans they need to fund their day-to-day operations. Until the debt crisis erupted, those government bonds typically served as collateral for loans from other banks.
When banks stop lending to one another, they also stop lending to the “real economy”: homeowners, consumers, businesses. The European Central Bank’s lending survey in October, the latest available, showed that standards for lending to businesses tightened significantly, and that banks expected them to tighten even further through the end of the year.
The banks also told the ECB that they were finding it increasingly hard to get their hands on loans. The percentage of banks saying their access to markets was tightening skyrocketed in the October report. They expected that situation to improve a bit toward the end of the year but to remain difficult.
Even that grim assessment may have been overly rosy: The rates banks charge each other to borrow dollars overnight has been steadily increasing in recent weeks. On Thursday, the rate known as LIBOR was 0.1505 percent _ a high matched once last week but not surpassed since late September.
The ECB has stepped in to lend to banks when no one else will. As a measure of how bad things have gotten, the ECB supplied banks with a total average of euro615.3 billion ($801 billion) in ready money to operate their businesses over the three months to Nov. 8. That’s up euro99.1 billion ($129 billion) from what banks needed in the previous three months.
The European Commission, the EU executive, believes that the joint issuing of eurobonds by the 17 euro nations would be the most effective way to tackle the financial crisis, according to a draft paper seen Monday.
The study by the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, will be presented Wednesday and could intensify a rift with Germany, which rejects eurobonds as a viable option at the moment because it would expose its taxpayers to weaker countries’ bad debt. Germany already funds the bulk of the existing bailouts.
The draft, published by the Financial Times and confirmed by the Commission, said replacing national bonds with one jointly-backed bond would have to be matched by tight financial and budgetary coordination. It also says discipline woul be needed to make it impossible for profligate nations to live on the back of budget-concious member states.
Since Greece pushed the eurozone into its ever-worsening financial mess last year, many member states have seen their cost of government borrowing rise to record levels. Germany’s borrowing rates, meanwhile, have dropped sharply as investors buy up its bonds as a safe haven. That has created a huge imbalance in debt markets within a zone ruled by one currency.
Germany has long been reluctant to bail out member states like Greece, Ireland and Portugal, insisting it was up to their governments to live by sound economic principles and win investor confidence.
The situation worsened dramatically over the past weeks, when Italy was put under such intense market pressure that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi had to resign to make way for a government of experts led by former EU commissioner Mario Monti.
As the EU’s third-largest economy with debt approaching euro1.9 trillion ($2.5 trillion) and 120 percent of its gross domestic product, Italy is seen as too big to bail out. Faced with a breakup in their currency union, the euro nations have been scrambling for new solutions.
The eurozone currently has a bailout fund, the so-called EFSF, but it still lacks the firepower and nimbleness to support Italy’s finances if it were to be frozen out of bond markets.
The European Central Bank for now is limiting bond market pressures by buying up the government bonds of weak countries like Italy guaranteed cash advance. That has helped keep Italy’s key borrowing rates below the crucial 7 percent threshold that has eventually caused Ireland and Portugal to need bailouts.
But the ECB says its bond purchases are limited and temporary. To materially lower eurozone borrowing rates to sustainable levels, the ECB would have to embark on a massive program of bond purchases.
Germany _ and the ECB, which is heavily influenced by Berlin’s policies _ opposes such a massive bond program, saying it is up to governments to get their finances straightened out.
As a result, the EU study is pushing for eurobonds _ or Stability Bonds, as it calls them _ instead of national bonds as the best way to avoid financial disaster.
“In this way, the severe liquidity constraints currently experienced by some member states could be overcome and the recurrence of such constraints would be avoided in the future,” the draft of the study said.
EU Commission officials were due to pore over the study on Monday but no fundamental changes were expected.
The draft said that eurobonds would “provide the global financial system with a second safe-haven market of a size and liquidity comparable with the U.S. Treasury market.”
The political difficulty, however, would be to impose the same fiscal rigor across the 17 euro nations and fundamentally change the balance of power between the European Union and the national capitals.
The draft says that such fundamental changes would “almost certainly require” changes in the treaty underpinning the EU. In the past, any treaty change has proven to be a tough political task.
On Monday, the issue will almost certainly come up when Greece’s new Prime Minister Lucas Papadimos meets with top EU officials to discuss Greece’s financial difficulties.
Italy’s Premier Mario Monti will visit EU headquarters on Tuesday to discuss similar issues. On Thursday, Monti is to join German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy in Strasbourg for what he calls a permanent club of the eurozone’s three largest economies to confront the debt crisis.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is warning of a “marked slowdown” in eurozone economies next year and says the European Union needs to clarify its anti-crisis measures.
In an update Monday of economic forecasts timed to coincide with this week’s meeting of the Group of 20 major economies, the OECD says “patches of mild negative growth” are likely in the eurozone in 2012.
It says economic growth in the eurozone will stall at 0.3 percent next year, after just 1 cash advance no faxing.6 percent growth this year.
The Paris-based OECD says “detailed information is needed” on how the EU will implement the package of measures announced last week aimed at resolving the European debt crisis, to prevent a repeat of the global crisis that hammered economies three years ago.
The leaders of South Korea and Japan agreed Wednesday to expand the size of a currency swap deal and push to resume stalled free trade negotiations, as Tokyo returned looted Korean royal documents in a goodwill gesture.
Seoul and Tokyo have close economic ties and are key U.S. allies in Asia, but many older Koreans still harbor deep resentment against Japan over its 35-year colonial occupation of Korea that ended in 1945. Ties suffered this year because of a territorial dispute and differences over the occupation.
On Wednesday, the leaders of the two countries agreed in a meeting in Seoul that they would expand the size of their total currency swap arrangements to $70 billion from the current $13 billion as a backstop against global economic turmoil. The measures consists of dollar-local currency and bilateral won-yen arrangements.
Swaps allow one central bank to borrow a currency from another, offering an equivalent amount of its own as collateral.
“We reached the agreement … based on a belief that we should strengthen our financial and currency cooperation to preemptively stabilize the financial market as the world’s economic uncertainty is deepening,” South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said at a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
Lee and Noda said they also agreed to bolster efforts to resume stalled negotiations on signing a free trade agreement.
The two countries began free trade talks in 2003, but the negotiations remain stalled over trade barriers on agriculture and fish. The South Korea-Japan deal drew renewed attention after the U.S. Congress ratified a free trade accord with South Korea this month. That deal still needs approval from South Korea’s parliament fast payday loan.
In an effort to improve ties, Noda repatriated five volumes of Korean royal documents that his country took away during its rule.
“The return should be seen as a gift with a political intention,” Seoul National University international relations professor Park Cheol-hee said.
The documents are part of 1,205 historical volumes that Japan agreed to give back to South Korea when Noda’s predecessor, Naoto Kan, met with Lee last year. A Japanese official traveling with Noda told reporters in Seoul that Tokyo is to return the remaining books by Dec.10. The official declined to be named because of office policy.
Noda told Lee that he would seek to return the remanning books at an appropriate time, according to South Korea’s presidential office.
The books’ return came two months after South Korea banned three conservative Japanese lawmakers from entering the country after they arrived at a Seoul airport with a plan to travel near islets at the center of territorial and historical disputes between the countries.
The two countries are also at odds over Seoul’s offer to hold talks on Japan’s compensation of Korean women forced into sexual slavery for Japan during its colonial rule. Japan declined, saying the matter was settled by a 1965 treaty that normalized ties between Japan and South Korea.
“I stated several times that moving toward the future without forgetting history is the basis of South Korea-Japan relations,” Lee said.
Noda told reporters the issue of sex slaves wasn’t discussed during Wednesday’s meeting.
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